The AL Central is not what you would call the strongest division in baseball. There are some intriguing teams and players in the division, and Kansas City is looking to try and break their longest in MLB drought from the postseason, but from top to bottom, this is not a division that stacks up with most others. Here's how I think it will shake out:
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Minnesota Twins
The Tigers are one of those teams that routinely coast through the regular seasons underperforming for their ability, but then start to hit their stride come playoff time. In any other division, they'd pay for this, but in the Central, they can get away with it. While I don't expect Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez to replicate their successes of last year, I expect Justin Verlander to rebound from what was a down year by his standards. The team improved defensively and in its versatility at the expense of some power by shipping Prince Fielder to Texas in exchange for Ian Kinsler, and plugging in Nick Castellanos at third base. They still have the best hitter in baseball in the lineup in Miguel Cabrera, some other good hitters before and after him, a good rotation, and a better bullpen than they have had in years. They won't win the division by as much as they should, but they'll still get there.
I almost felt like none of these teams deserved the number two spot. The Royals, while they have a team that is a trendy pick due to their stacked core of athletic position players, just don't get me as excited as everyone else. They have a lack of power, and a real lack of starting pitching. While they trot out a good defense that really helps their starting pitching, it still doesn't take away that the pitching is very mediocre after James Shields. Yordano Ventura is an X-Factor here, and he could be the deciding factor that pushes them to a playoff run, but I still think there is a lot that has to go right for this team to succeed. I will always give the benefit of the doubt to a team that has better pitching than hitting, which is not the case for the Royals due to their rotation.
The White Sox are a team I think will surprise. They have one of the best pitchers in baseball in Chris Sale, a strong number two in Jose Quintana, and some respectable arms at the back end of the rotation. They have a lot of breakout candidates on this team, and while a perfect scenario for them where they have a number of things go right and make a run is unlikely, I really feel as though enough of them will perform well for them to stay competitive and make the other teams at the top of the division nervous. Jose Abreu should be a good masher in the middle of the order, Avisail Garcia has a world of potential, and the the remainder of their outfield has a good chance of making some solid contributions. They have veteran presence in the clubhouse, and I just get a good feeling about this team.
The Indians, in my opinion, will take a step back this year, mainly because I think the White Sox have more sure things in their rotation. Justin Masterson appears to have progressed well, but his career has been up and down, so there's no telling if he can continue his more recent success. McAllister at the number two slot shouldn't excite anyone, either. Danny Salazar should have a good year, but he'll likely have his ups and downs. The batting order should improve a little with Carlos Santana taking over third base and Yan Gomes taking over catching duties, but it remains to be seen how well he will play there defensively over the course of a season. Their position players, by and large, seem closer to their ceilings, which given how middle of the pack they were in many categories last year, doesn't bode well, in my opinion.
Any team trotting out Ricky Nolasco on opening day is pretty much destined to be a bottom dweller in the standings. Their rotation is amongst the worst in the league, and their offense was pedestrian, to be kind, last year as well. The only thing they really have to play for is being better than the Astros in the American League this year, and I'd argue they'll only do that because they play in a much weaker division. The best thing about Minnesota baseball this year will just be the fact that it is no longer zero degrees outside.
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