The American League West should be a fun one this year. It's a division that has a little bit of everything. You've got a good deal of talented, young pitching in the division, and teams with very different roster construction. To me, this is a race that is going to come down to the last day or two of the season, and probably the hardest division for me to try and pick (save for the Astros as a lock for last place).
1. LA Angels
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Houston Astros
It's hard to believe that a team that has $500 million tied up in three players is considered a surprise pick at the top of this division, but I think that this is a year that things click for them. Albert Pujols is doing well this spring and with a clean bill of health, he will be out with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. I don't think there is any way that Josh Hamilton lives up to his contract, but he cannot possibly be worse than he was last year. And oh, by the way, they have the best player on the planet in Mike Trout. I think David Freese is a nice candidate to rebound to his previous level of performance after a down year last year. This pick does depart from my conventional tendency to favor pitching, as they are not a deep pitching team and will require some good performances from Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs (what a steal of a trade that was for them this offseason). I think what helps their chances is I believe they are the team out of the top three in the West that is best constructed to take the most games from Seattle and Houston, which may ultimately be the deciding factor.
Oakland year in and year out makes Moneyball work better than most people would ever expect. This is a good, deep team, but unfortunately for them, when you have to start tapping into your depth before the first game of the season even starts, it puts you at a little bit of a handicap. Injuries this early on to their starting pitching are unfortunate, but they are one of the few teams that can plug the holes fairly well. The lineup, anchored by John Donaldson, has some solid, but unspectacular players. They have a lot of guys that know how to get on base, but with a team that doesn't feature a particular high batting average team, there is the potential that some of those runs they managed to plate last year don't get plated this year. They are a team that needs to win close games, and Jim Johnson in the closer's role doesn't make me feel comfortable they'll win as many as they need to win the division.
When I look at the infield that Texas will trot out this year, I wonder how I put them third in the AL West. Ultimately what I see that I don't like is the way they jerk around their pitchers. This indecision makes me wonder if everyone is on the same page there. Typically when there is this rotating door of starters, people moving from the rotation to the bullpen and back again, it just doesn't lend to a nice continuity on the field. With Yu Darvish banged up to begin the year, they are already in a hole with their top of the rotation not stacking up to others in the division. Behind him, they really have a lot of question marks, too. Any team hoping to be a contender with Tommy Hanson in the rotation has some holes. Ultimately, with OBP fiend Shin Soo Choo getting on base in front of Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre, this team will score some runs, but I think they will fall short with some of their players failing to live up to Texas' expectations.
Seattle made a splash by signing Robinson Cano to a 10 year contract this winter. What they didn't do is address plenty of other areas of need. Before even playing a game for the Mariners, Cano acknowledged they need another bat in the middle of the order. This is a lefty heavy lineup that doesn't have a ton of great hitters by any stretch of the imagination, and doling out a ton of cash for one of the better hitters in baseball isn't going to fix the rest of the spots in the lineup. Furthering their woes, Seattle starts with two of their starters on the disabled list, so their area of strength on the team is banged up right out of the gate. Of course, they have King Felix anchoring the rotation, and they have some good young starters here, so they should pitch pretty well once they return to full health. Much like his entire career, though, Felix is going to struggle to win games due to a lack of run support, and if he isn't winning games, you know the other four starters won't be either.
Houston has another painful year in store for them, but on the bright side, they have managed to build up their farm system, and a resurgence shouldn't be too far away. Couple that with the fact that they have an Angels team with some enormous contracts on the books limiting their flexibility and an A's team that is always in the process of flipping players before they get a big contract somewhere, and their rise to the top of the division could be faster than usual. For this year, though, they simply won't pitch or hit enough to compete.
AL Predictions:
Wild Card Game: Yankees over Athletics
ALDS: Tigers over Yankees, Rays over Angels
ALCS: Tigers over Rays
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