I now turn my attention to the National League as I try to hurriedly finish my predictions before we get too far along into the season. All the hours at the office don't make it easier, but the excitement of baseball being back should be enough to get me to continue to write. The NL East isn't particularly strong, and it only got worse with two of the Braves' starters scheduled for Tommy John surgery before the season even started. This is a division that should be very exciting come 2015 when the Mets get Matt Harvey back to accompany some of the other phenomenal young up and coming starters in their system, and the Marlins will be on the upswing as well in their perpetual ebb and flow of rebuilding and surging. But it's 2014 now, and here's what I anticipate:
1. Washington Nationals
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. New York Mets
5. Miami Marlins
The Nationals are loaded with pitching, and with the Braves getting hit with the injury bug, that should be enough for Washington to safely win the division. Bryce Harper is a trendy MVP candidate, and after seeing what Mike Trout has done at such a young age, it's far from unreasonable to expect one of the most talented ballplayers of the past few decades to perform on that level. Adam LaRoche absolutely needs to play better this year, which he should do, not because I think he is great, but because he does seem to up his game playing in a contract year. At the end of the day, this team is too good and too deep to disappoint two years in a row, particularly in a weak division.
The Braves begin the season with three pitchers on the 15 day DL and three pitchers on the 60 day DL. Talk about starting out in the hole. They were able to mitigate some of the damage by sweeping up Ervin Santana late in the winter free agent period, but any team that has Aaron Harang in the rotation definitely has some room for improvement. They still have the best closer in baseball at the back end to ensure that when they are ahead late in the game, it will stay that way, which is one good thing they have going for them. The downside is they are counting on the Upton brothers to deliver for this offense. As they were quick to find out, they are wasting $17 million a year on one of the most worthless hitters in baseball to man center field. It's nearly impossible to have a worse season than B.J. Upton had last year, but I still fully expect him to have a bad year while his brother Justin and Jason Heyward continue to underachieve. Chris Johnson will be hard pressed to replicate his year last year, too, so when you look at their lineup in total, it's pretty underwhelming. They make it to the second spot merely because of the weak division.
Try to name the Phillies who are not past their prime. It's hard, isn't it? When you look at this roster, it's tough to think how little it's changed over the past six years. That does not bode well for a baseball team 99 times out of 100. If there is a fountain of youth and this team found it, they'd be immensely dangerous, but with this team injuries are a when, not an if, and they are just strapped for flexibility. Their top of the rotation is still strong and they have guys who will get hot in spurts, but there just isn't enough to this team to make a race for a playoff spot. This is a last place team in 2 or 3 other divisions.
As I alluded to before, the Mets in their rebuilding process have gone full steam after pitching, and their time will be in the near future. For now, though, they are sans young phenom Matt Harvey and instead will rely on the least fit performance enhancing drug user you've ever seen, Bartolo Colon. Offensively, the team's construction seemed to try and put as many low batting average, low on base percentage, high strikeout power guys next to each other as possible; expect a lot of solo home runs from this team. There's just a shortage of major league ready talent here.
The Marlins have a young rotation that other GMs are envious of. Headed by Jose Fernandez and also featuring the likes of Jacob Turner, Henderson Alvarez, and Nate Eovaldi, this is a team that had some great potential in the rotation. No, not all four of them are top of the rotation guys, but with the oldest of the bunch being 24, they certainly have time to continue to elevate their games and have 2-3 pan out. Unfortunately, that's about the best thing to say about this team. The lineup is horrible outside of Giancarlo Stanton and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. This is a team that couldn't muster an OBP of .300 last year and couldn't even drive in 500 runs. Even with moderate improvement from some of their younger players, that is such a horrible starting point that it doesn't give them much to be optimistic about.
Monday, March 31, 2014
Sunday, March 30, 2014
Major League Baseball 2014 Predictions: AL West
The American League West should be a fun one this year. It's a division that has a little bit of everything. You've got a good deal of talented, young pitching in the division, and teams with very different roster construction. To me, this is a race that is going to come down to the last day or two of the season, and probably the hardest division for me to try and pick (save for the Astros as a lock for last place).
1. LA Angels
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Houston Astros
It's hard to believe that a team that has $500 million tied up in three players is considered a surprise pick at the top of this division, but I think that this is a year that things click for them. Albert Pujols is doing well this spring and with a clean bill of health, he will be out with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. I don't think there is any way that Josh Hamilton lives up to his contract, but he cannot possibly be worse than he was last year. And oh, by the way, they have the best player on the planet in Mike Trout. I think David Freese is a nice candidate to rebound to his previous level of performance after a down year last year. This pick does depart from my conventional tendency to favor pitching, as they are not a deep pitching team and will require some good performances from Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs (what a steal of a trade that was for them this offseason). I think what helps their chances is I believe they are the team out of the top three in the West that is best constructed to take the most games from Seattle and Houston, which may ultimately be the deciding factor.
Oakland year in and year out makes Moneyball work better than most people would ever expect. This is a good, deep team, but unfortunately for them, when you have to start tapping into your depth before the first game of the season even starts, it puts you at a little bit of a handicap. Injuries this early on to their starting pitching are unfortunate, but they are one of the few teams that can plug the holes fairly well. The lineup, anchored by John Donaldson, has some solid, but unspectacular players. They have a lot of guys that know how to get on base, but with a team that doesn't feature a particular high batting average team, there is the potential that some of those runs they managed to plate last year don't get plated this year. They are a team that needs to win close games, and Jim Johnson in the closer's role doesn't make me feel comfortable they'll win as many as they need to win the division.
When I look at the infield that Texas will trot out this year, I wonder how I put them third in the AL West. Ultimately what I see that I don't like is the way they jerk around their pitchers. This indecision makes me wonder if everyone is on the same page there. Typically when there is this rotating door of starters, people moving from the rotation to the bullpen and back again, it just doesn't lend to a nice continuity on the field. With Yu Darvish banged up to begin the year, they are already in a hole with their top of the rotation not stacking up to others in the division. Behind him, they really have a lot of question marks, too. Any team hoping to be a contender with Tommy Hanson in the rotation has some holes. Ultimately, with OBP fiend Shin Soo Choo getting on base in front of Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre, this team will score some runs, but I think they will fall short with some of their players failing to live up to Texas' expectations.
Seattle made a splash by signing Robinson Cano to a 10 year contract this winter. What they didn't do is address plenty of other areas of need. Before even playing a game for the Mariners, Cano acknowledged they need another bat in the middle of the order. This is a lefty heavy lineup that doesn't have a ton of great hitters by any stretch of the imagination, and doling out a ton of cash for one of the better hitters in baseball isn't going to fix the rest of the spots in the lineup. Furthering their woes, Seattle starts with two of their starters on the disabled list, so their area of strength on the team is banged up right out of the gate. Of course, they have King Felix anchoring the rotation, and they have some good young starters here, so they should pitch pretty well once they return to full health. Much like his entire career, though, Felix is going to struggle to win games due to a lack of run support, and if he isn't winning games, you know the other four starters won't be either.
Houston has another painful year in store for them, but on the bright side, they have managed to build up their farm system, and a resurgence shouldn't be too far away. Couple that with the fact that they have an Angels team with some enormous contracts on the books limiting their flexibility and an A's team that is always in the process of flipping players before they get a big contract somewhere, and their rise to the top of the division could be faster than usual. For this year, though, they simply won't pitch or hit enough to compete.
AL Predictions:
Wild Card Game: Yankees over Athletics
ALDS: Tigers over Yankees, Rays over Angels
ALCS: Tigers over Rays
1. LA Angels
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Houston Astros
It's hard to believe that a team that has $500 million tied up in three players is considered a surprise pick at the top of this division, but I think that this is a year that things click for them. Albert Pujols is doing well this spring and with a clean bill of health, he will be out with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. I don't think there is any way that Josh Hamilton lives up to his contract, but he cannot possibly be worse than he was last year. And oh, by the way, they have the best player on the planet in Mike Trout. I think David Freese is a nice candidate to rebound to his previous level of performance after a down year last year. This pick does depart from my conventional tendency to favor pitching, as they are not a deep pitching team and will require some good performances from Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs (what a steal of a trade that was for them this offseason). I think what helps their chances is I believe they are the team out of the top three in the West that is best constructed to take the most games from Seattle and Houston, which may ultimately be the deciding factor.
Oakland year in and year out makes Moneyball work better than most people would ever expect. This is a good, deep team, but unfortunately for them, when you have to start tapping into your depth before the first game of the season even starts, it puts you at a little bit of a handicap. Injuries this early on to their starting pitching are unfortunate, but they are one of the few teams that can plug the holes fairly well. The lineup, anchored by John Donaldson, has some solid, but unspectacular players. They have a lot of guys that know how to get on base, but with a team that doesn't feature a particular high batting average team, there is the potential that some of those runs they managed to plate last year don't get plated this year. They are a team that needs to win close games, and Jim Johnson in the closer's role doesn't make me feel comfortable they'll win as many as they need to win the division.
When I look at the infield that Texas will trot out this year, I wonder how I put them third in the AL West. Ultimately what I see that I don't like is the way they jerk around their pitchers. This indecision makes me wonder if everyone is on the same page there. Typically when there is this rotating door of starters, people moving from the rotation to the bullpen and back again, it just doesn't lend to a nice continuity on the field. With Yu Darvish banged up to begin the year, they are already in a hole with their top of the rotation not stacking up to others in the division. Behind him, they really have a lot of question marks, too. Any team hoping to be a contender with Tommy Hanson in the rotation has some holes. Ultimately, with OBP fiend Shin Soo Choo getting on base in front of Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre, this team will score some runs, but I think they will fall short with some of their players failing to live up to Texas' expectations.
Seattle made a splash by signing Robinson Cano to a 10 year contract this winter. What they didn't do is address plenty of other areas of need. Before even playing a game for the Mariners, Cano acknowledged they need another bat in the middle of the order. This is a lefty heavy lineup that doesn't have a ton of great hitters by any stretch of the imagination, and doling out a ton of cash for one of the better hitters in baseball isn't going to fix the rest of the spots in the lineup. Furthering their woes, Seattle starts with two of their starters on the disabled list, so their area of strength on the team is banged up right out of the gate. Of course, they have King Felix anchoring the rotation, and they have some good young starters here, so they should pitch pretty well once they return to full health. Much like his entire career, though, Felix is going to struggle to win games due to a lack of run support, and if he isn't winning games, you know the other four starters won't be either.
Houston has another painful year in store for them, but on the bright side, they have managed to build up their farm system, and a resurgence shouldn't be too far away. Couple that with the fact that they have an Angels team with some enormous contracts on the books limiting their flexibility and an A's team that is always in the process of flipping players before they get a big contract somewhere, and their rise to the top of the division could be faster than usual. For this year, though, they simply won't pitch or hit enough to compete.
AL Predictions:
Wild Card Game: Yankees over Athletics
ALDS: Tigers over Yankees, Rays over Angels
ALCS: Tigers over Rays
Saturday, March 29, 2014
Major League Baseball 2014 Predictions: AL Central
The AL Central is not what you would call the strongest division in baseball. There are some intriguing teams and players in the division, and Kansas City is looking to try and break their longest in MLB drought from the postseason, but from top to bottom, this is not a division that stacks up with most others. Here's how I think it will shake out:
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Minnesota Twins
The Tigers are one of those teams that routinely coast through the regular seasons underperforming for their ability, but then start to hit their stride come playoff time. In any other division, they'd pay for this, but in the Central, they can get away with it. While I don't expect Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez to replicate their successes of last year, I expect Justin Verlander to rebound from what was a down year by his standards. The team improved defensively and in its versatility at the expense of some power by shipping Prince Fielder to Texas in exchange for Ian Kinsler, and plugging in Nick Castellanos at third base. They still have the best hitter in baseball in the lineup in Miguel Cabrera, some other good hitters before and after him, a good rotation, and a better bullpen than they have had in years. They won't win the division by as much as they should, but they'll still get there.
I almost felt like none of these teams deserved the number two spot. The Royals, while they have a team that is a trendy pick due to their stacked core of athletic position players, just don't get me as excited as everyone else. They have a lack of power, and a real lack of starting pitching. While they trot out a good defense that really helps their starting pitching, it still doesn't take away that the pitching is very mediocre after James Shields. Yordano Ventura is an X-Factor here, and he could be the deciding factor that pushes them to a playoff run, but I still think there is a lot that has to go right for this team to succeed. I will always give the benefit of the doubt to a team that has better pitching than hitting, which is not the case for the Royals due to their rotation.
The White Sox are a team I think will surprise. They have one of the best pitchers in baseball in Chris Sale, a strong number two in Jose Quintana, and some respectable arms at the back end of the rotation. They have a lot of breakout candidates on this team, and while a perfect scenario for them where they have a number of things go right and make a run is unlikely, I really feel as though enough of them will perform well for them to stay competitive and make the other teams at the top of the division nervous. Jose Abreu should be a good masher in the middle of the order, Avisail Garcia has a world of potential, and the the remainder of their outfield has a good chance of making some solid contributions. They have veteran presence in the clubhouse, and I just get a good feeling about this team.
The Indians, in my opinion, will take a step back this year, mainly because I think the White Sox have more sure things in their rotation. Justin Masterson appears to have progressed well, but his career has been up and down, so there's no telling if he can continue his more recent success. McAllister at the number two slot shouldn't excite anyone, either. Danny Salazar should have a good year, but he'll likely have his ups and downs. The batting order should improve a little with Carlos Santana taking over third base and Yan Gomes taking over catching duties, but it remains to be seen how well he will play there defensively over the course of a season. Their position players, by and large, seem closer to their ceilings, which given how middle of the pack they were in many categories last year, doesn't bode well, in my opinion.
Any team trotting out Ricky Nolasco on opening day is pretty much destined to be a bottom dweller in the standings. Their rotation is amongst the worst in the league, and their offense was pedestrian, to be kind, last year as well. The only thing they really have to play for is being better than the Astros in the American League this year, and I'd argue they'll only do that because they play in a much weaker division. The best thing about Minnesota baseball this year will just be the fact that it is no longer zero degrees outside.
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Minnesota Twins
The Tigers are one of those teams that routinely coast through the regular seasons underperforming for their ability, but then start to hit their stride come playoff time. In any other division, they'd pay for this, but in the Central, they can get away with it. While I don't expect Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez to replicate their successes of last year, I expect Justin Verlander to rebound from what was a down year by his standards. The team improved defensively and in its versatility at the expense of some power by shipping Prince Fielder to Texas in exchange for Ian Kinsler, and plugging in Nick Castellanos at third base. They still have the best hitter in baseball in the lineup in Miguel Cabrera, some other good hitters before and after him, a good rotation, and a better bullpen than they have had in years. They won't win the division by as much as they should, but they'll still get there.
I almost felt like none of these teams deserved the number two spot. The Royals, while they have a team that is a trendy pick due to their stacked core of athletic position players, just don't get me as excited as everyone else. They have a lack of power, and a real lack of starting pitching. While they trot out a good defense that really helps their starting pitching, it still doesn't take away that the pitching is very mediocre after James Shields. Yordano Ventura is an X-Factor here, and he could be the deciding factor that pushes them to a playoff run, but I still think there is a lot that has to go right for this team to succeed. I will always give the benefit of the doubt to a team that has better pitching than hitting, which is not the case for the Royals due to their rotation.
The White Sox are a team I think will surprise. They have one of the best pitchers in baseball in Chris Sale, a strong number two in Jose Quintana, and some respectable arms at the back end of the rotation. They have a lot of breakout candidates on this team, and while a perfect scenario for them where they have a number of things go right and make a run is unlikely, I really feel as though enough of them will perform well for them to stay competitive and make the other teams at the top of the division nervous. Jose Abreu should be a good masher in the middle of the order, Avisail Garcia has a world of potential, and the the remainder of their outfield has a good chance of making some solid contributions. They have veteran presence in the clubhouse, and I just get a good feeling about this team.
The Indians, in my opinion, will take a step back this year, mainly because I think the White Sox have more sure things in their rotation. Justin Masterson appears to have progressed well, but his career has been up and down, so there's no telling if he can continue his more recent success. McAllister at the number two slot shouldn't excite anyone, either. Danny Salazar should have a good year, but he'll likely have his ups and downs. The batting order should improve a little with Carlos Santana taking over third base and Yan Gomes taking over catching duties, but it remains to be seen how well he will play there defensively over the course of a season. Their position players, by and large, seem closer to their ceilings, which given how middle of the pack they were in many categories last year, doesn't bode well, in my opinion.
Any team trotting out Ricky Nolasco on opening day is pretty much destined to be a bottom dweller in the standings. Their rotation is amongst the worst in the league, and their offense was pedestrian, to be kind, last year as well. The only thing they really have to play for is being better than the Astros in the American League this year, and I'd argue they'll only do that because they play in a much weaker division. The best thing about Minnesota baseball this year will just be the fact that it is no longer zero degrees outside.
Major League Baseball 2014 Predictions: AL East
First off, yes, it has been a while since I have posted. Work has been stressful to say the least, I've had housing things to take care of, had a business trip, and have just been exhausted overall. All that aside, I know I need to write more, and what better to write about than the upcoming Major League Baseball season? I'll have a separate piece for each division, and I'll start with what is thought by most to be the best in baseball, the American League East.
AL East:
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. New York Yankees
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays
As always, this is a brutal division and should make for a good race. I have the Rays winning this year, though it is really just a toss up. As always, their starting pitching is really good and really deep. They have several guys in the minors that would be in the starting rotation on most other Major League teams. I think Wil Myers will have a good sophomore season, which will hopefully give them more of a middle of the order presence. The thing the Rays have lacked over the years is a masher in the middle of the order, and while I still don't think they have it, they're good enough to overcome it with pitching and defense. One can't help but wonder if they hadn't made the curious move of passing over FSU's Buster Posey, an in state guy at their biggest position of need, in the draft if this team would have a World Series championship by now.
The Yankees obviously spent a ton of money in the offseason to avoid consecutive seasons out of the playoffs, but this team still has its holes. They have one of the weakest infields in all of baseball, both offensively and defensively. Even if Jeter has a bounce back year (I just don't see it), he's still going to be a liability in the field. With band-aids such as Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson, the Yankees are really hoping they can catch lightning in a bottle. While they doubtlessly have talent, a good, deep outfield, and a pitching staff that could end up as one of the best in the American League, the infield will ultimately be their achilles heel. I also doubt C.C. Sabathia will rebound and the Yankees' number one position in the rotation will have among the worst stats in baseball relative to other number ones.
Two years ago Boston was last in the East. Last year they were World Series champs. I think these seasons were both anomalies, and this year they will float back to a middle ground. One thing that the Sox are always able to do is assemble a team that is well suited to their home park, and without looking at any statistics to back up this guess, I feel like they have to have one of the best home field advantages in baseball. This team is strong in leadership and is well rounded, but I don't see how their pitching can possibly replicate their performance of last year. They could have the comeback player of the year in Grady Sizemore, and if he stays healthy (doubtful), he could be one of the best stories in baseball this season.
I felt the Orioles were a pretty safe bet for this spot until they went out and signed Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez. Chris Davis won't replicate his 2013 season, but he doesn't need to with a lineup that should prove to be one of the best, if not the best, in baseball. As always, pitching is a big question mark for them, and I simply am not a believer in Jimenez as an ace. To me, this is a team that will probably have a torrid run at some point in the season, but inconsistency and a lack of depth will be their downfall. If their pitching exceeds expectations this year, though, they could easily be the AL East champs.
In another division, this team could make a run at a playoff spot, but they just won't get it done in the East.
Their trade to become the Marlins 2.0 was one that set this team back big time. That summer they banked on severely injury prone players that made up the core of a last place team and signed a knuckleballer to play in a dome. Definitely not one of their better offseasons. They have plenty of guys capable of putting up a great offensive season, but due to injuries and inconsistency, they are never able to do it all in the same year. They simply don't have the pitching to stack up in this division. Ricky Romero's great season from several years ago seems further away than it was. What happened to that guy?
AL East:
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. New York Yankees
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays
As always, this is a brutal division and should make for a good race. I have the Rays winning this year, though it is really just a toss up. As always, their starting pitching is really good and really deep. They have several guys in the minors that would be in the starting rotation on most other Major League teams. I think Wil Myers will have a good sophomore season, which will hopefully give them more of a middle of the order presence. The thing the Rays have lacked over the years is a masher in the middle of the order, and while I still don't think they have it, they're good enough to overcome it with pitching and defense. One can't help but wonder if they hadn't made the curious move of passing over FSU's Buster Posey, an in state guy at their biggest position of need, in the draft if this team would have a World Series championship by now.
The Yankees obviously spent a ton of money in the offseason to avoid consecutive seasons out of the playoffs, but this team still has its holes. They have one of the weakest infields in all of baseball, both offensively and defensively. Even if Jeter has a bounce back year (I just don't see it), he's still going to be a liability in the field. With band-aids such as Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson, the Yankees are really hoping they can catch lightning in a bottle. While they doubtlessly have talent, a good, deep outfield, and a pitching staff that could end up as one of the best in the American League, the infield will ultimately be their achilles heel. I also doubt C.C. Sabathia will rebound and the Yankees' number one position in the rotation will have among the worst stats in baseball relative to other number ones.
Two years ago Boston was last in the East. Last year they were World Series champs. I think these seasons were both anomalies, and this year they will float back to a middle ground. One thing that the Sox are always able to do is assemble a team that is well suited to their home park, and without looking at any statistics to back up this guess, I feel like they have to have one of the best home field advantages in baseball. This team is strong in leadership and is well rounded, but I don't see how their pitching can possibly replicate their performance of last year. They could have the comeback player of the year in Grady Sizemore, and if he stays healthy (doubtful), he could be one of the best stories in baseball this season.
I felt the Orioles were a pretty safe bet for this spot until they went out and signed Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez. Chris Davis won't replicate his 2013 season, but he doesn't need to with a lineup that should prove to be one of the best, if not the best, in baseball. As always, pitching is a big question mark for them, and I simply am not a believer in Jimenez as an ace. To me, this is a team that will probably have a torrid run at some point in the season, but inconsistency and a lack of depth will be their downfall. If their pitching exceeds expectations this year, though, they could easily be the AL East champs.
In another division, this team could make a run at a playoff spot, but they just won't get it done in the East.
Their trade to become the Marlins 2.0 was one that set this team back big time. That summer they banked on severely injury prone players that made up the core of a last place team and signed a knuckleballer to play in a dome. Definitely not one of their better offseasons. They have plenty of guys capable of putting up a great offensive season, but due to injuries and inconsistency, they are never able to do it all in the same year. They simply don't have the pitching to stack up in this division. Ricky Romero's great season from several years ago seems further away than it was. What happened to that guy?
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