1. Cardinals
2. Reds
3. Brewers
4. Pirates
5. Cubs
The Cardinals really need little explanation. They can pitch, they can hit, they're a deep team, and they've got a good combination of youth and experience. They do play in a tough division, and injuries can always rear their ugly heads, but I don't see much that can derail this team. They have the best catcher in baseball in Yadier Molina leading the team who not only excels offensively, but is heads and shoulders above the competition defensively. Post PED Jhonny Peralta may not pan out for them, but they managed all last year in the infield with Pete Kozma and Daniel Descalso, so I think they can manage. Losing Carlos Beltran hurts, but their outfield defense gets a boost with Peter Bourjos in center, and if Matt Adams can play like he did last year, they'll get another good bat in the lineup with him at first and Allen Craig moving to the outfield.
Last season had to be a letdown for the Reds. They came in with high expectations and fell short, much to the benefit of the Pirates. They were rather unlucky, though, as they sported a great run differential, one that ordinarily would result in a better record than they achieved. They had a scary spring training injury with Aroldis Chapman getting drilled by a line drive, and their disabled list resembles a roster in and of itself. The Reds are like the Rays of the NL, though. They have pitching to spare, and despite being down five pitchers, they have the arms to hold keep them in the hunt. Joey Votto doesn't get the attention of Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout, but this guy gets on base like it's nobody's business. The X-Factor for them will be Billy Hamilton. While people excitedly wonder if he can steal 100 bases, I wonder if he will even reach base 150 times.
No, still no Pirates. It pains me to put the Brewers here simply because of my disdain for Ryan Braun, but I genuinely think this is a better team than the Pirates. Their starting rotation is adequate, they have a pretty good offense with power and speed in the outfield and a good hitting catcher in Jonathan Lucroy, and if Jean Segura can put up a year like he did last year, I cannot see them finishing lower than third place. Aramis Ramirez seems to manage to put up respectable numbers when he is healthy, and while this could be a dropoff year for him, they have some guys that have the potential to pick up the slack. This team might end up being a little too reliant on power hitting without enough high on base guys, but I think the team finds a way to win games and exceeds expectations.
It doesn't feel good to shift the Pirates back to fourth, but I see last season as more of a fluke than anything. They have a GREAT young outfield and will for years to come, but their pitching really outperformed expectations, and they were actually very far behind the Reds in run differential. Translation: they had some luck. With the likes of Wandy Rodriguez and Edison Volquez in the rotation, that's a guarantee for some regression relative to their 2013 success. Their defense certainly plays a role in their pitching success, but ultimately I just don't think they have the arms or the on base percentage to make last year's run a reality again this year.
Can we just mark this down as another year without a World Series ring? They've got a couple of nice players on the Major League roster, but this team is in full on rebuild mode, and it will pay off for them within the next couple of years. More than anything, they really have to be frustrated not knowing what Starlin Castro is going to pan out like. They had to be hoping he'd be the premier young shortstop in the game right now, and he simply isn't paying the dividends they thought he would. It's easy to forget he's still only 24, so there's still time for him.
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