Finally I finish off my regular season preview. It's a few days into the season, but I hardly think this makes a difference over the span of 162 games, especially considering I have been trying to avoid looking at the results of games aside from the Yankees' lackadaisical 0-2 start. The NL West is a solid division with the powerhouse Dodgers leading the way and deceptive depth from top to bottom.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres
What more needs to be said about the Dodgers? They throw around more money than the Yankees, they have the best starting pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw, and they back him up with a formidable rotation. They have plenty of offensive talent even without Matt Kemp, who at this point is one of the biggest teases in baseball. Yaisel Puig has the tools of Vladimir Guerrero in his prime and the brain of Manny Ramirez. Harnessing him will prove difficult, but he's a phenomenal talent who is already great and has a tremendously high ceiling. They have to manage the circus-like atmosphere more than they do the performance on the field, as that is the only thing that can derail them from a playoff spot.
The Giants can never seem to string a few good years together in a row, but they are due for a rebound year. Their biggest challenge will be overcoming a weak back of the rotation with Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong weighing down a stellar front three of Cain, Bumgarner, and Hudson. Brandon Belt has gotten better each year in the big leagues, and if he makes another good jump this season, he will be one of the best first basemen in baseball. At the very least, he should make modest progress at a minimum and help make a formidable middle of the order presence with Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, and a very slimmed down Pablo Sandoval. If Sandoval's trimmer frame helps keep him healthy and allows him to elevate his game, that will be a huge gain for the Giants, as the guy can flat out hit regardless. This is a very dangerous team if the cards fall right for them.
I really don't have much justification for the Rockies here other than a gut feeling. Their pitching was atrocious last year, and their best pitcher is on the DL right now. They took a flier on the oft-injured Brett Anderson who formerly showed some tremendous ability. If he puts together a full season, which is a huge if, he could provide a huge boost to this team. I am going to guess that happens. Their other oft-injured star, Troy Tulowitzki, also hopes to stay healthy and anchor an imposing middle of the order with Michael Cuddyer, who certainly has taken a liking to Coors Field, Carlos Gonzalez, and Wilin Rosario, one of the best catchers in the game who is relatively unknown to the casual fan. If they can get some progress out of their young pitchers, which it's hard to imagine being worse than last year, I think them staying in the hunt until after the All Star break is possible.
I'd like to put this team last simply because of all the bonehead roster moves they have made the past few years, but I just cannot do it. Paul Goldschmidt is that good, and he will put this team on his back at points of the season in order to keep them out of the division cellar. Losing Patrick Corbin to injury hurts and makes trading away a stud young pitching prospect for a low batting average, high strikeout power hitter who is a liability on defense look all the more foolish. There were better ways to infuse power into the lineup, which is still pretty mediocre. Martin Prado didn't even come close to outperforming Chris Johnson last year, let alone come close to warranting giving up the overrated but for some reason immensely valued Justin Upton. Didi Gregorious, thought to be a trade that would potentially give the Diamondbacks their answer at shortstop, has made no progress with the bat and starts the season in AAA. Like I said, they made some really questionable trades.
The Padres ended last year with a team ERA that was a quarter of a run worse than the NL average. That's pretty bad for a team that plays in Petco Park. They have Andrew Cashner who should continue to improve, and they have a few other guys that could have better seasons than last year, but I wouldn't call them a pitching rich team at the big league level. They trot out a very pedestrian outfield, have a huge disappointment at first base in Yonder Alonso, and it remains to be seen how Everth Cabrera bounces back after being suspended 50 games last year. Chase Headley should play better than he did last year, but I think it's pretty obvious that the Padres should have sold high on him and stocked up more for the future. The bullpen of this team is a real strength, though, so if the starters can get through the fifth or sixth inning, they are going to give themselves a lot of chances, which will win them a few games.
Wild Card Game: Giants over Reds
NLDS: Giants over Dodgers, Cardinals over Nationals
NLCS: Giants over Cardinals
World Series: Giants over Tigers
The Giants are a team that have some great pieces and have a knack for getting hot at the right time, which is what the playoffs are all about. This isn't a high probability pick, but what is the fun in a Dodgers/Cardinals vs. Red Sox/Tigers prediction?
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